What is Russia’s biggest weakness revealed by Wagner Group?

Russia is facing a crisis as Putin’s former ally, Prigozhin, and his ruthless Wagner Group’s tanks are heading to Moscow. How did the relationship between Putin and his private army turn sour? What was the plan behind the failed coup in Russia? And what does this mean for the future of the Kremlin? Join us as we explore the shocking story of the betrayal and rebellion that rocked Russia in today’s thrilling narrative 🤯🚨🕵️‍♂️

How Prigozhin's Rebellion Shook Putin's Regime

Vladimir Putin's reign as supreme clown of the Russian Federation nears its end, and the very man he created- Yevegeny Prigozhin- is all to blame. Now as the dust settles on the shortest revolution attempt in history, the news aren't good for Putin who managed to survive not getting Mussolinied in Red Square.

In case you missed it, Prigozhin's Wagner Group decided to go on a brief fun run to Moscow starting on Friday June 23rd. The bombastic chief of the infamous mercenary organization released a video claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense had shelled his tank and killed “a lot” of his guys. This is perfectly believable, as sabotage between the Russian Army and the Wagner forces has been a common trend throughout the war. The flimsy pretense to seek justice sent Prigozhin and Wagner on the war path, and Russia got reverse-invaded for like the tenth time during its one year and four month invasion of Ukraine.

We are only now finding out what really went down on the ground, and by the time you see this there will probably be even more details available that might contradict or shed new light on the facts we present here. However, the algorithm god demands constant sacrifices, and we be but frail mortals standing before a terrible deity. What we have recently found out is just how close Prigozhin got to really shaking things up in Russia, and how close Russian Minster of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov got to taking an early and permanent retirement.

Prigozhin's ire was publicly directed at these two master clowns, in charge of running the entire clown circus that is the Russian Federation Armed Forces. Carefully picking his words, Prigozhin claimed that his “march for justice” was not a coup attempt, but rather an attempt to bring Shoigu and Gerasimov to justice for attacking his troops and their general ineptitude during the entire war, leading to the deaths of countless Russian troops. Shoigu however apparently got word of Wagner crossing the border and heading towards his location at the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-On-Don, as he was promptly whisked away on a private jet before Wager air defenses could get in range. Gerasimov didn't have the same luck, and according to accounts instead sought refuge in a safe house.

Russia dispatched blocking forces to intercept Wagner but by all accounts these forces refused to engage with Wagner troops, with only sporadic accounts of fighting on the ground. The Russian Air Force did decide to attack Wagner's supply of air defense missiles, successfully destroying an estimated six air defense missiles with their aircraft, at a loss of about a dozen pilots.

It seems that Prigozhin really was after Gerasimov and Shoigu, but the plot had been leaked early and tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum had a chance to escape before facing... well, not justice but... karma? When he discovered the chickens had flown the coop, Prigozhin turned Wagner north, heading for Moscow and threatening that any who would get in his way would be destroyed. Once more Russia scrambled to find forces to stop Wagner and realized that if you're sending T-54s into battle in Ukraine, you probably don't have much more than strongly worded objections back home to stop 25,000 rampaging mercenaries. Putin promptly browned his Adidas tracksuit and took to the skies, making his escape east out of Moscow before he wound up like Mussolini.

However, Prigozhin abruptly ended his march north just an estimated 200 kilometers from Moscow, announcing that he was sending Wagner back to its field camps. Putin, who had taken to public television to practically beg other Russians not to join Prigozhin, and then threatened all traitors with the harshest measures, did exactly what a tough, strongman dictator would do: he immediately pardoned Prigozhin and Wagner of all wrong doings, allowing Prigozhin to exile himself to Belarus.

The Fallout for Putin

We still don't really know why Prigozhin suddenly turned things around, but what we do know is that in twenty four hours Prigozhin shattered Putin's cultivated image of being an untouchable strongman, firmly in control of the reins of power over all Russia. When you're a dictator who clings to power via intimidation, bribes, occasional window-related murders, and the slow but steady oppression of your people, the last thing you can afford is to look weak. And Prigozhin made Putin not only look weak, but also incompetent. A strongman doesn't threaten traitors trying to overthrow him, and then six hours later goes on national TV to say “jk, you're forgiven”. And a strongman doesn't let the man in charge of a coup that almost overthrew your government to simply leave the country. Prigozhin's defiance, but also the sweetheart deal he got from Putin, have completely destroyed the Russian dictator's image- and the sharks in the water already smell blood.

We now know that Wagner troops got their pardon, along with three choices: leave Russia to join Prigozhin in Belarus, sign contracts with the Russian military, or go home. Russia also immediatedly moved to disarm Wagner, stripping it of all the heavy equipment that the private army posessed- such as tanks, artillery, aircraft, and infantry fighting vehicles. In Syria, we have reports that the Russian army has arrested Wagner officers in order to break their control over the group. In essence, Russia is looking to completely dismantle Wagner- a tough task considering that the group's base of operations, and source of finances, is in Africa and well out of reach of the Russian government, because it was precisely the Russian government who sent them there to act on its behalf.

Putin created this monster with his own two hands. Wishing to extend Russian influence into places that the government really did not want to be directly linked to, he allowed Yevegeny Prigozhin to establish Wagner PMC. Technically illegal, private military companies are not supposed to exist under the Russian constitution, but the Russian constitution is literally not worth the paper it's printed on. However, by keeping PMCs illegal, Putin had leverage over their owners, like Prigozhin, whom he recognized might get funny ideas about rising up against him one day. If he suspected such a thing was possible, all he had to do was have the head of a PMC arrested and the entire affair disbanded.

It's a different story altogether however when you've allowed that PMC to arm itself to the teeth to the point taht it's better equipped than most Russian units. Wagner has everything from T-72 main battle tanks to self-propelled artillery and even helicopters- and all with the Russian government's blessing. It was even allowed to operate from Russian military bases, and use their training facilities. Putin believed he had Wagner under his thumb, when in truth, the moment that the Russian military was weakened by fighting in Ukraine, it was Prigozhin who had Putin under his thumb.

And nobody's sure why Prigozhin didn't pull the trigger. Perhaps he thought he didn't have the political support, which is a shame because in the days after the rebellion, people who came in contact with the Wagner forces in Russia have been pouring out in support for the PMC and its chief. This has deeply rattled Putin, who's felt the need to put out his own propaganda, releasing a video of himself meeting a crowd of rabid supporters- something he only does when things are not going very well for him.

The Uncertain Future for Russia

The real question is, what has been happening to everyone around Putin? Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has been the topic of wild speculation, given that he hasn't been seen publicly since the insurrection. The Russian military released a video of him visiting troops a few days after the Wagner incident, but it was unclear if this was a present video or had been shot earlier this year. However, rumors are circulating that Shoigu may be on the outs, fired from his post by Putin and replaced with another loyalist.

Similarly General Gerasimov has been MIA from the public eye and not mentioned in any defense briefings since June 9th. Rumors circulating amongst pro-Russian sources state that a purge is under way with many senior leaders being thoroughly interrogated to see if they had any knowledge of the rebellion plot. Gerasimov may have been swept up in this purge- the question is if he'll survive it. While it's unlikley he had anything to do with it, it's also a fact that Prigozhin's public excuse for his coup attempt was Gerasimov and Shoigu's incompetence- and judging by the Russian people's response, a lot of them agree with Prigozhin's assessment. It may be politically beneficial for Putin to simply fire Shoigu and Gerasimov, though doing so will come with a question: is Putin making more enemies by doing so?

And that's a very serious concern that did not exist for Vladimir Putin the day before Wagner's rebellion. Secure in his power, Putin foolishly allowed Prigozhin to have so much free leash that he turned a blind eye to Prigozhin's constant attacks on the Russian military over social media. The enmity between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense got so bad that there were instances of outright fire fights between the two sides. There’s also credible reports of Prigozhin leaking the location of high ranking Russian officers to the Ukrainians, who were quick to send uncle HIMARS to their location.

Being a dictator means keeping everyone around you in a delicate balance of hating and fearing each other just slightly more than they hate and fear you, that way they don’t band together to try to take you down. With Prigozhin’s defiance though, Putin is bound to be seeing shadows in every corner, and as he weighs his options on what to do about the major players responsible for this tragedy, he now has to consider what power and ability they may have to strike back at him. The Russian people are clearly not wholly opposed to the idea of violent revolution, given Wagner’s reception in the cities they took- and it doesn’t have to be Wagner that lights the match of a real revolution. Russia appears to be a powder keg waiting to explode due to discontent over worsening economic conditions and the toll of the war on Russia’s fathers and sons.

The rot appears to run deep, and there are unconfirmed, but believable reports, that General Sergei Surovikin has been arrested by Russia’s FSB. Surovikin is best remembered as the butcher of Syria, who got the nickname in Russia of “General Armageddon” for his wanton crimes against humanity during the Syrian war- because in Russia war crimes are celebrated and get you cool nicknames. Faced with a Russian military too weak to actually take on the much smaller Ukrainian military, it was also Surovikin who took over the war in Ukraine from Gerasimov last year and launched a hilariously failed campaign to knock the power out all over the nation by attacking its electricity infrastructure. At no time during Russia’s wasteful use of a rapidly dwindling stockpile of smart weapons did Ukraine lose more than a fraction of its total power grid, and most blackouts only lasted hours. At the cost of hundreds of millions of dollars in munitions no longer available to hit military targets, Surovikin managed the equivalent of knocking some Ukrainian League of Legends players offline long enough to get lunch.

But Surovikin’s… ‘impressive’ tactical mind and Hero of Russia medal- an award he got again, for killing civilians en masse- could not stop the FSB from arresting him. According to as-yet uncomfirmed reports, Surovikin had advance knowledge of Prigozhin’s plot. However, what nobody knows is if he was complicit in some form- which seems unlikely given that he was one of the first major Russian figures to issue a public statement urging Wagner to back down- which he delivered while balancing an AK assault rifle on his knee because, Russia. It was also Surovikin’s air force who launched multiple attacks against Wagner’s column, bravely destroying multiple air defense missiles with their aircraft.

Perhaps Surovikin was aware of the plot but did not report it to see how things would turn out- after all, if Prigozhin managed to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov in one fell swoop, there’d be very few people who could organize a resistance force to stop him. Or perhaps Surovikin is like literally every other Russian public figure, a pure opportunist placing self well before duty, and didn’t speak up hoping that this is exactly what would happen, opening up the door for him to become new Minister of Defense. That’s the fun part about Russian politics, they’re all so corrupt, selfish, and generally monstrous human beings that no plot is inconceivable.

If Surovikin didn’t speak up on purpose, this is problematic for Putin, as it signals that senior leaders in his own military are getting very tired of him and his war. But this isn’t the only group that Putin could face a challenge from.

The Oligarchs’ Discontent

The oligarchs, who are basically the only citizens who actually matter in Russia- at least until those citizens form mobs- are getting increasingly exasperated with the Putin regime as well. In March, a leaked call between businessman and former politician Farkhad Akhmedov and music producer Iosif Prigozhin- not related to the other Prigozhin- revealed how dissatisfied the oligarchy is becoming with Putin’s disastrous war… and his height apparently. Referring to Putin as a “dwarf” and “satan”, the two oligarchs lamented the financial effects of the war and Putin’s lack of ethics. Most chilling of all for Putin today though is the comments shared by the two affirming that they were far from the only people who are thoroughly over Vladimir Vasilivich Putin.

And Wagner has showed them that it really wouldn’t take much to oust the dictator from power. Shoigu and Gerasimov still command a lot of respect from the armed forces, and trying to remove one or both of them could result in a fresh coup- this time by the military itself. Putin must therefore very carefully weigh exactly how to deal with the targets of Prigozhin’s wrath- men he blamed for starting the war in the first place and for purposefully misleading the President and Russia both. This is yet another significant new concern for Putin, because Prigozhin did the second most unforgivable capital sin: he went directly against the Kremlin narrative on the war in Ukraine, and people listened.

As he took Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin laid out the lies that Russia had told its people over the war in Ukraine. NATO was not working in tandem with Ukraine to attack Russia. There were no nazis in Ukraine. Russian speakers in Ukraine were not under threat of extermination. One by one, Prigozhin rebutted all of the Kremlin’s favorite lies it’s told its own people for over a year- as well as a disturbing amount of not-quite-critical-thinkers in the west who swallowed Putin’s propaganda hook, line and sinker. The government has worked hard to crack down on the flow of information in Russia, but Prigozhin’s statements have been making the rounds over social media even as he, and the Wagner Group, are forbidden from being mentioned on state media.

And with this bit of defiance, Prigozhin also showed that it was ok to oppose the Kremlin narrative, opening up yet another can of worms. Putin is now like a man desperately trying to keep the sand from running through his fingers, as he races against time to shore up his weakening position in Russian politics. For the first time in his entire reign, Putin faces the very real prospect of losing his upcoming election- and while elections in Russia are a sham, when millions of angry Russians who know they didn’t vote for Putin see him win uncontested, there’s going to Mussolini-flavored problems for Putin.

The International Implications

Internationally, the Wagner rebellion has turned Putin into a laughing stock. Most damning of all is the fact that the Russian military was completely helpless to stop a private military company from running rampant inside its own borders. In the wake of the Wagner coup, support for Ukraine has experienced a dramatic uptick amongst westerners, and the fears of escalation that Putin has cultivated for over a year now have greatly diminished. People are finally starting to see what we’ve been trying to say for a year now- the Russian military is a bunch of clown shoes and poses literally no threat of escalation. In wake of the rebellion, the US congress pressed President Biden to significantly escalate the type of aid given to Ukraine, with a bipartisan appeal that the President authorize the sending of cluster munitions badly needed for clearing trenches.

Putin is floundering, desperately trying to stop the bleeding from a dozen wounds inflicted on him by Prigozhin. Nobody knows what Prigozhin’s own ultimate fate will be, but given the great lengths the Putin regime has gone to kill critics internationally, Prigozhin’s own life may be in serious threat. Then again, the man is the head of what is arguably the most powerful PMC in the world, with billions in revenue from all manner of operations across the developing world including significant stakes in a variety of precious mineral mines. Wagner PMC doesn’t need the Kremlin anymore, and if push comes to shove it’s already proven what it’s capable of.

The Conclusion

Putin’s own fate remains to be seen, but the man is a survivor. What is immediately clear is that the Russian Federation is the weakest it’s been in its entire modern history, and the man who drove it to such catastrophe has overnight turned into an international laughingstock. How long he can hold on to the reins of power remains to be seen.

But one thing is certain: Prigozhin’s rebellion has shaken Putin’s regime to its core, and exposed its fragility and vulnerability. The cracks are showing, and they are widening. The people are restless, and they are angry. The oligarchs are dissatisfied, and they are greedy. The military is divided, and they are weary. The world is watching, and they are ready. The end may be near for Putin and his clown show. And it may be sooner than we think.

📝 Sources: https://pastebin.com/t3E10VYC