Scenarios for Russia/Ukraine End Game

Ukraine wins the war

This is what most of the world hopes for, particularly western powers. I don’t for one moment believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia, but perhaps Putin’s taste for war bitters, the more it costs him to keep the war going. The western countries continue to fund the Ukraine and support Ukraine, with modern technological weapons and such support of Ukraine might lead to Putin not wanting to continue the war. (The west have a strategy of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian standing.)

Perhaps The Russian people will be more and more isolated and sanctions will bite, but I don’t think this scenario will be the outcome because Putin has China as a neighbour and China makes around 70% of consumable goods. Putin has already done a deal with China for energy, in exchange for consumer goods, no doubt.

Nuclear strike from Russia

This is possibly one of the worst outcomes. Maybe Putin will lose his mind if the Ukrainian forces defend valiantly as they currently are. Putin will therefore have to make life unbearable in Ukraine with rockets strikes, cyber strikes and cutting off energy supplies to destroy Ukraine as we know it. Nuclear strikes are extremely risky, as it may lead to counter nuclear strikes from the west. But with that MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) mentality that someone like Putin may hold, this could be a possibility.

If the west does not react, then Putin will annex Ukraine and make it a state of Russia once more, and Putin will outlaw anything that goes against his regime, making Russia a police state. He could also close the iron curtain once more.

Partition in Ukraine

Perhaps by agreement, parts of Ukraine can remain independent. Putin will insist that the Eastern parts belong to Russia. Russia may insist on other regions too and use it as a bargaining tool with Zelensky, offering peace after months of war on the condition that parts of Ukraine fall under Russian rule and become Russian. (This was Putin’s initial motivation for war along with the advance of NATO Eastwards, according to him). Putin has said that he was fighting against the murder of Russians in the Donbas region.

If this happens, a vast number of Ukrainian people will have to migrate to Europe, or face being under Russian rule. After such a protacted war, no Ukrainian will want to be under Russian rule.

Putin will reinstall Yanukovich, who fled to Russia after the 2014 uprising. Yanukovich will lead the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine according to the agreement, with Putin, and work closely with Putin.

Revolution in Russia

This scenario will see the people of Russia revolt and with such action and mass mobilisation of people, the economic and military elite will want to save their own skins and isolate Putin as a madman. Those loyal to Putin will realise that he is powerless to defend them.

In this scenario, we have the western powers in the background promising that if a more moderate leader replaces Putin, that the west will lift sanctions and diplomatic relations will resume. This may be very attractive to everyday Russians.

China’s Intervention

What if China says that it will not buy oil and gas from Russia, because Xi Jinping does not want instability and threats of nuclear war in the region? China can then threaten Putin to come to a negotiated settlement with the West.

This settlement could entail that Ukraine grants Donbas and Crimea to the Russians, and Russia allows Ukraine independence and their ties to Europe. I think this is wishful thinking, because China does not want an empowered West, and at the moment, China and Russia are a strong counterbalance of power to the West.

Of all the above scenarios, I think the most likely are that Russia and China remain in an alliance against an encroaching west, because I think China will see Russia as the last barrier between western military and China. Also, China will benefit from a longer protracted war between Russia and the West as both spend money and resources, weakening each other over the longer term, allowing China to rise in the background, and become the dominant world power.

Personally, I wish this war would just end, so that the world can be a lot more of a stable place, but history somehow teaches us that this will probably not happen. Can you think of any other scenarios there could be? The worst of all, would be world war 3, and I don’t even want to think like that.

Let me know your thoughts and insights.