War between Russia and Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine started to slow down after a few months. The Ukrainian resistance was stronger than Moscow expected. Russia's resources were dwindling, and casualties were increasing. The front line has stabilized, but Ukraine has an advantage: support from Western military-industrial complexes. Russia has three times Ukraine's population, but Ukraine has better equipment. Western sanctions made it hard for Russia to replace losses in advanced weapon systems. Iran stepped up to supply much of Russia's equipment to continue fighting.

In the winter of 2022-23, Iranian Kamikaze drones called Shahed 136 appeared in Ukraine under Russian service. The drones were used to bombard civilian infrastructure, knocking out half of the electric grid. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps deployed military advisors and soldiers to assist the Russians on the ground. In addition to the drones, Iran provided ammunition, artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and body armor to the Russians. The Iranian regime is fully supporting the Russian side in the invasion of Ukraine, creating a potential military alliance between Russia and Iran. This could define the 21st century in the region.

Russia and Iran are heavily sanctioned by Western countries after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They have few alternatives for trading partners, so they have turned to each other. Russian exports to Iran have risen by 27%, while Iranian exports to Russia have risen by 10%. Russia has invested $40 billion in Iran's natural gas infrastructure. They have also cooperated in launching a satellite and supporting Bashar al-Assad in Syria. They both view the United States and the West as a common enemy. The Ukrainian conflict allows Iran to test its military hardware against American-supplied hardware. They complement each other militarily, with Iran supplying ammunition and drones, and Russia supplying fighter jets and air defense systems.

The Russians and Iranians have been bitter enemies for centuries. But now, in the 2020s, they have a growing alliance and partnership. This is a strange aberration in history. The two countries have fought multiple wars against each other over competing influences and interests. The Russians conquered and annexed territories from Iran in the 19th century. These territories remained part of Russia and the Soviet Union for nearly two centuries. Russian influence in this formerly Iranian part of the world continues to persist. This has caused Iranian nationalists to lament the loss of the South Caucasus to the Russians as a national embarrassment and humiliation.

The Russians and Iranians clashed often in the 19th century. The British Empire's goal was to stop Russia from expanding into Central Asia and challenging their naval supremacy in the Indian Ocean. In 1907, they divided Iran into mutual spheres of influence without consulting the Iranians. During WWII, the British and Soviets invaded Iran to keep it open for Allied supply routes. The Shah was toppled, and the Soviets occupied parts of the country until 1946. The new Shah, Sun Muhammad Reza Palavi, was staunchly pro-American and anti-Communist. Imperial Iran became America's policeman in the Middle East, guarding the Persian Gulf and its oil reserves. Tehran and Moscow remained tense.

In 1979, the Islamic revolution happened in Iran, changing the entire Middle East forever. The pro-American Shah was toppled, and the anti-American Ayatollah Khamenei seized power. The new Iran was declared as the Islamic Republic of Iran, ruled by the ultra-conservative Iranian Shiite Muslim clergy class with Khamenei as the supreme leader. Their grander objective was to export Iran's Islamic revolution abroad and unify the Islamic world under Iran's own clergy, while destroying Israel.

The US severed its relations with Iran after the abduction of 52 American diplomats in Tehran at the end of 1979. The two countries have remained bitter enemies, with no official relations for over four decades. Saddam Hussein's regime in neighboring Iraq balked at the prospect of the Islamic Republic exporting the Islamic revolution into Iraq's Shia Muslim majority, leading to a full-scale invasion of Iran.

The Soviet Union feared the Islamic revolution spreading from Iran into Afghanistan and then into Soviet Central Asia, potentially stirring up uprisings where the populations were predominantly Muslim. This fear was a primary motivator for the Soviet decision to invade Afghanistan at the end of 1980, in order to prop up the Afghan Communist Regime and keep the Islamic revolution from expanding beyond Iran's borders and into the Muslim citizens of Soviet Central Asia.

In the past, Iran supported the mujahideen forces in Afghanistan. Soviet and Iranian forces even fought against each other. After the Soviet Union collapsed, relations between Russia and Iran improved. They became the third largest customer of Russian weapons. The relationship evolved into an alliance during the Syrian Civil War. Both regimes backed the Assad regime in Syria. Syria was opposed to Israel and the United States. They also contested control of the hate Province within Turkey. The Syrian regime aligned itself with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In exchange for military and financial aid, the Syrians granted the Soviets the ability to establish an overseas naval facility at Tardis. After the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia inherited control over the naval facilities at Tardis. As the Civil War erupted in Syria, Moscow feared losing control over Tardis and their ability to operate in the Mediterranean.

Russia sent troops and mercenaries to Syria in 2015 to support the pro-Moscow regime. The Russian Air Force carried out over 70,000 airstrikes against the Assad regime's enemies. Assad's territorial control over Syria was expanded at the expense of the rebels. In return, Assad granted Russia control over the naval facility at Tardis for 49 years, free of charge and legal jurisdiction. Tardis became a de facto outpost of the Russian Federation in Syria, where they could store up to 11 warships and even nuclear weapons. Iran also helped Syria because it was strategically important to them. Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon comprise Iran's axis of resistance against the US, Israel, and Gulf era monarchies. Syria and Iran share common enemies, including Israel. Syria has never recognized Israel's statehood and remains the most militantly anti-Israel state in the Arab world. The Assad regime is largely dominated by the country's minority Shia Muslim adjacent branch of alawite Muslims, which diminishes the religious differences between Iran and Syria. Iran and Syria cooperate to see the eventual destruction of Israel and the rolling back of American influence in the Middle East.

Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq stood between Iran and Syria for decades. Saddam feared Iran's exportation of the Islamic revolution into Iraq's Shia Muslim population. He also wanted to be the senior leader over Syria's Ba'athist party, which they refused. For a time, Saddam's Iraq was seen as the Arab world's defense against Iran's radical Islamic revolution. However, after Saddam invaded and conquered Kuwait in 1990, the mood shifted against him. The US intervened in the Gulf War to prevent Saddam from dominating the world's oil supply. Later, they invaded Iraq in 2003 and overthrew Saddam. However, this created a power vacuum between the Shia Arabs in the South, the Sunni Arabs in the center, and the Sunni Kurds in the North. The US established a democracy that the Shia Muslims would inevitably win and control, achieving all of Iran's interests in Iraq instead of their own. Iran wants to keep Iraq decentralized and weak to prevent anti-Iran figures from rising and to keep supply routes open to Syria.

Iran has been recruiting and training proxy militia forces in Iraq's Shia era population for years. These Iranian-backed Shiite militia proxies take weapons and supplies given to them by the Iranian State and transport them to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is a political military organization built out of Lebanon's own Shia Muslim population and financed and trained by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Their goal is to unify all Islamic peoples beneath one flag, expel Western Powers viewed as imperialists and colonialists from the Middle East, and destroy Israel.

Hezbollah has become even more powerful than the Lebanese State itself, with more and better armed soldiers than the actual Lebanese Army. The organization even managed to take control over the Lebanese government in 2020. Lebanon represents the first outside country that Iran managed to successfully export their Islamic revolution to, and Hezbollah remains a critical component of Iran's ability to attack Israel and project power into the Eastern Mediterranean.

The civil war in Syria threatened to destroy all of Iran's decades of efforts in Lebanon. If the pro-Iranian and pro-Hezbollah Assad regime were to fall from power and a pro-Western regime take its place, Iran's ability to funnel weapons and supplies by land to Hezbollah would be destroyed. To prevent this from happening, the Iranians found themselves fighting side by side with the Russians in Syria. It was largely the culmination of Iranian forces and their proxies fighting in the Assad regime's behalf on the ground and the Russian Air Force fighting for the Assad regime in the skies that won Assad-backed control over most of the country by 2019.

The Kremlin relied on Iran when they pulled out troops and equipment from Syria to focus on Ukraine. This left Iranian forces and proxies to protect Russia's gains in Syria. Western Financial sanctions hit Russia and Iran hard, making them pariah states. Putin visited Iran in 2022 to strengthen their military cooperation. India increased trade with Russia, despite the war in Ukraine. They doubled their trade volume with Russia in 2022 and are projected to increase it further in 2023. Russia is India's largest supplier of oil, fertilizer, and weapons. However, exporting to India is complicated.

Russia exports oil, gas, fertilizer, and arms to India. The traditional route is long and expensive, passing through five narrow choke points under NATO influence. This route is geopolitically tenuous after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia and India have been working on the international north-south transport Corridor to transport exports more directly to India. The ins TC will reduce the price and travel time of exports, and avoid sensitive choke points. Iran is the key intermediary and will load Russian exports onto ships that will flow down the Caspian Sea. Putin's Russia may achieve an elusive goal of establishing Russian Maritime access on the Indian Ocean. Iran is vital for Russia to expand their partnership with in the future.

In June 2022, Putin met with the Ayatollah in Iran. Iran is now providing Russia with military equipment for four reasons. First, because the Americans are supplying weapons to Ukraine, Iran wants to supply Russia with Iranian-made weapons to see how they compare to the American-made ones. Second, Russia has agreed to sell Iran advanced fighter jets and air defense systems. Third, Iran may hope that Russia will assist them in developing a nuclear weapon. However, this would alienate Russia from important financial partners like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Fourth, if the situation in Ukraine worsens, Russia may take riskier actions to distract America and the West. Helping Iran acquire a nuclear weapon could trigger a conflict in the Middle East that would divert American military attention.

The conflict between nuclear-armed Israel and Iran, or Saudi Arabia and Iran, would likely involve the American military. This would distract from America's current focus on Ukraine. Iran wants nuclear weapons as a shield against Western intervention. Pariah regimes without nuclear weapons, like Iraq and Libya, were easily toppled by Western military intervention. North Korea and Russia have not been directly targeted due to their possession of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are seen as an insurance policy against invasion. Iran's ability to pursue foreign policy objectives in the Middle East has been hindered by the United States since 2020.

Iran is eager to support Russia against Ukraine and NATO. Several Arab countries have normalized relations with Israel, leaving Iran with fewer allies. The United States convinced some Sunni monarchies and Sudan to normalize relations with Israel. This weakened Iran's position in the Middle East. Iran approached Saudi Arabia and China for a deal, which would restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and temporarily set aside their rivalry. This undermines American diplomacy and stalls other Arab countries' willingness to normalize relations with Israel. The deal also highlights the vast differences in ideology and geopolitical goals between the regimes of Iran, Russia, and China.

Many countries believe that the US-dominated world order is coming to an end. Iran has been determined to undermine the US-led world order since 1979. Russia sees its war in Ukraine as a fight against NATO and the US. China wants to establish Communist party authority over Taiwan and end its "Century of humiliation" by Western powers. Iran will support anyone fighting against the US. Despite their history of conflict, Russia and Iran view the US as their greater enemy and are moving closer to a military alliance. This is playing out in the complicated conflict in Syria.